By Rishabh Narang · Last updated
The consensus score is a directional read on derivatives market positioning. It shows whether the market is leaning bullish, bearish, or neutral right now, not where price will print tomorrow. It is a deterministic heuristic, not a calibrated probability or a price target.
- Score range
- 0 to 100, centred on 50. 60 and above leans bullish, below 40 leans bearish, 40 to 60 is neutral.
- Signals
- Eleven: eight market signals plus positioning pressure, momentum exhaustion and squeeze risk.
- Low coverage
- Fewer than two live signals is marked insufficient data, not a neutral call.
What the score is
Every signal contributes a bullish or bearish bias. The final score aggregates those biases into a range from 0 to 100, centred on 50, so the output is easy to scan across many assets. The result is marked insufficient data when fewer than two live signals are available, rather than presenting the midpoint as a neutral market call.
Conviction weighting
Signals are weighted by how extreme the reading is, not by fixed percentages. A barely negative funding rate moves the score little; an extremely negative one moves it a lot. The same logic applies to RSI extremes, liquidation imbalances and a long/short ratio far from the coin's own 7-day norm, so the strongest live signal dominates when the market clearly leans one way.
Why derivatives data
Spot markets show what already happened. Derivatives markets show how traders are positioned, hedged and forced to react, and that positioning often shows stress or conviction before it is obvious in the spot price.
The eleven signals
- Funding Rate
- The periodic payment between longs and shorts on perpetual futures. Heavily negative funding often points to bearish positioning or hedge pressure.
- Open Interest
- Total value of outstanding derivative contracts. Rising OI during flat or weak price action can signal fresh short positioning.
- Perp Basis
- The perpetual futures premium or discount versus spot. Negative basis shows perps trading below spot, which often confirms bearish pressure.
- CVD
- Net taker flow over the last 24 hourly futures candles, from exchange-reported taker-buy volume (no candle-shape proxy). Negative net delta points to active selling pressure; positive net delta points to buy-side aggression.
- Long/Short Ratio
- A contrarian read on account positioning against the coin's own norm: the long/short ratio compared with its 7-day median on the same venues (Binance, Bybit, OKX). Retail accounts are net long on most coins, so a ratio above 1 is usually normal; a crowd longer than its norm reads bearish, shorter reads bullish. A move of 41% from the norm is a full-strength reading.
- Liquidations
- The balance of forced liquidations over 24 hours. Long liquidations imply downside stress; short liquidations imply upside pressure.
- RSI (14)
- A momentum oscillator used here as a contrarian signal. Extreme overbought or oversold readings raise conviction.
- EMA Crossover
- The percentage gap between short and long exponential moving averages. Positive gaps indicate bullish momentum, negative gaps indicate bearish momentum.
- Positioning Pressure
- A multi-variable read of price, OI expansion, CVD, basis, and EMA. It is strongest when falling price, rising OI, sell-aggressive flow, and negative basis line up.
- Momentum Exhaustion
- A reversal model for pumped or capitulated assets. It combines 7D/30D returns, distance from the 7D high or low, RSI, derivatives flow, and exchange coverage.
- Squeeze Risk
- A crowding model that flags asymmetric short- or long-squeeze risk from OI expansion, funding, long/short ratio, CVD, price action, and liquidation bias.
What this is not
- Not a calibrated price target, probability interval, or financial advice.
- Deterministic rules, not a trained machine-learning model.
- Not a standalone trading signal.
- Not guaranteed to be correct in fast-moving markets.
The goal is to make directional positioning legible, not to replace judgment. Read it alongside structure, liquidity, narrative context and risk management.